Mongolia’s macro – autumn update

Mongolia’s economy continues to ride the downside of the commodities super-cycle, with falling FDI and slowing growth. How is it managing, and what comes next?  The World Bank’s macro and fiscal management team, led by Tae Hyun Lee, produced an excellent report, the autumn edition of Mongolia Economic Update, our semiannual in-depth study of Mongolia’s macro economy.  (We also have regional updates twice a year and a monthly on occasion.)

The economy is slowing, and this is easing pressure on the current account and inflation.  Mongolia’s long-term growth prospects remain bright, with an increasingly educated population and vast mineral resources, and growth will pick up again. But as a small non-diversified economy, heavily dependent on commodity exports and with one major trading partner, Mongolia needs to be on firm footing to withstand shocks which could have big impacts, either positive or negative. The report also addresses special topics and this edition covered Mongolia’s social welfare transfer system social welfare transfer system and the latest poverty numbers.

The report is far richer in analysis than can be summarized so briefly. You can read the full report here.  I was invited to give an interview on the Jargal De Facto television program–one targeted at a general audience–and you can find that interview here.

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